| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Weber State | 45-10 | 1642.1 | +57.8 | 1699.9 | 89.4% |
| 3 | Sep 5 2025 | L | Louisville | 14-28 | 1699.9 | -32.1 | 1667.8 | 32.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Liberty | 31-13 | 1665.8 | +33.6 | 1699.4 | 76.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 35-10 | 1699.4 | +28.8 | 1728.2 | 76.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Georgia State | 14-7 | 1728.2 | -31.7 | 1696.5 | 92.3% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Louisiana | 24-14 | 1696.5 | -20.7 | 1675.8 | 81.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Old Dominion | 63-27 | 1675.8 | +68.0 | 1743.8 | 45.4% |
| 11 | Oct 28 2025 | W | Texas State | 52-20 | 1737.1 | +63.0 | 1800.1 | 68.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Marshall | 35-23 | 1800.1 | -2.6 | 1797.5 | 79.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | App State | 58-10 | 1797.5 | +51.0 | 1848.5 | 89.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Washington State | 24-20 | 1848.5 | -18.9 | 1829.6 | 74.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Coastal Carolina | 59-10 | 1829.6 | +46.9 | 1876.5 | 92.0% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | W | Troy | 31-14 | 1876.5 | -10.6 | 1865.9 | 90.0% |
| 18 | Dec 20 2025 | L | Oregon | 34-51 | 1864.9 | -1.1 | 1863.8 | 16.3% |